圖片版權 Getty Images

2020年1月,台灣即將選出新一任總統。表面上看,這是一場關於現任總統蔡英文、國民黨黑馬韓國瑜以及台灣政壇老將宋楚瑜的角逐,但海峽對岸的中國在這場選舉舉足輕重。

BBC在梳理總統候選人民意調查結果時發現,幾乎每一次民意起伏都和與中國大陸對台動作有關聯。

2019年12月下旬的各項民調顯示,民進黨候選人蔡英文支持率大幅領先於另兩位對手。在這場選戰中,對北京立場強硬是蔡英文的一個標籤,也幫助她在這一年裏翻轉民意。

2018年11月進行的台灣「九合一」地方選舉中,蔡英文領導下的民進黨大敗給在野的國民黨,失去多個民進黨的傳統票倉。其中台灣南部城市高雄更是20年來首次被國民黨拿下,也把原本不為眾人所知的韓國瑜推上高雄市長這個位置。

地方選舉遭遇「滑鐵盧」後,蔡英文引咎辭去民進黨黨主席職務,滿意度創新低,民進黨2020大選的選情一度不再被看好。

視統一台灣為宏願的北京或許看到了其中的玄機,在接下來的一年時間內,不斷通過政策、外交等手段向台灣施壓,但沒想到這卻為蔡英文翻身助一臂之力。

《告台灣同胞書》講話帶來的轉機 圖片版權 Getty Images Image caption 有分析人士指出,「反中情緒」已經成為這次選舉民調的一個決定性因素。

2019年1月2日,中國國家主席習近平發表《告台灣同胞書》40週年紀念講話,提出探索「一國兩制台灣方案」,並稱「不承諾放棄武力」應對「台獨力量」。

這種喊話立即被蔡英文斷然拒絶。她表示,台灣絶不會接受「一國兩制」,也不接受所謂兩岸同屬一個中國的「九二共識」。

「我們始終未接受『九二共識』,根本的原因就是北京當局所定義的『九二共識』,其實就是『一個中國』、『一國兩制』……我要重申,台灣絶不會接受『一國兩制』,絶大多數台灣民意也堅決反對『一國兩制』,而這也是『台灣共識』。」蔡英文說。

這種明確反對北京立場的強硬回應為她贏來收復失地的機會。「台灣兩岸政策協會」隨後公布的民調結果顯示,超過80%的台灣民眾不贊成「一國兩制」,85.2%的人支持蔡英文對於兩岸關係發展提出的必須接受中華民國存在事實、遵守台灣民眾對民主與自由的堅持等「四個必須」 ,78%民眾支持她所說的兩岸政治協商應經台灣人民授權和監督。台灣媒體報道戲稱蔡英文「是死裏逃生」。

「在蔡英文就習近平的那番講話發表評論後,她的支持率有明顯上升,」美國智庫國際戰略研究中心(CSIS)資深顧問葛來儀(Bonnie Glaser)告訴BBC中文,這種強硬立場已經被蔡英文陣營用作一種造勢工具。「同時香港也是被她利用的一個話題。」

如果說1月習近平的講話給了蔡英文起死回生的機會,6月開始的香港示威則助她逆勢而上。

  • 香港「反送中」抗議:藍綠說法如何影響台灣總統大選走向
  • 韓國瑜訪港澳會晤中聯辦官員背後的政治考量
香港示威和大陸出招之後

6月9日起,香港爆發大規模「反送中」示威運動,抗議香港特區政府修訂《逃犯條例》,高呼保障香港民主與自由。這場讓北京難堪運動在台灣引發強烈呼應。

在6.9與6.12兩場香港大遊行後,蔡英文6月16日表示,守護人民的民主和自由是領導人最基本且最重要的任務,「如果沒決心沒能力做到,說什麼都是借口」。

與蔡英文不同,國民黨總統候選人韓國瑜始終主張與大陸維持良好穩定關係。他在履任高雄市長後不久便高調訪問中國大陸,會見國台辦主任與中聯辦主任等官員,簽下數十億台幣訂單。 然而,從19年夏天開始他支持率持續下滑。

韓國瑜回應香港問題時同樣相對溫和。在第一次被問及時,韓國瑜籠統稱「不知道」,招致大量批評。雖然之後他多次發聲,但在民主話題上的得分儼然已經落後蔡英文。

國立台灣大學政治系教授王業立專攻台灣選舉,他認為特別是在訪問大陸之後,韓國瑜在這次選戰被冠以鮮明的「親中色彩」。「雖然韓國瑜一直強調自己不能夠接受『一國兩制』,但通常這樣的說法在台灣不能獲得多數人,尤其是年輕族群的支持。」

民調反應也表現一致。從6月中旬起,蔡英文民調開始超過韓國瑜,雖然中間出現波動,但在7月底之後蔡英文的領先優勢已較明顯。

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2020台灣總統選舉民意調查情況
Date 宋楚瑜 韓國瑜 蔡英文
2019/12/10 9% 20% 48%
2019/12/8 7.2% 24.5% 46.6%
2019/12/2 6.5% 15.2% 50.8%
2019/11/29 6.6% 19% 51%
2019/11/25 9.5% 30.3% 44.4%
2019/11/22 6.7% 22.7% 42.2%
2019/11/15 6% 24% 42.3%
2019/11/14 8% 29% 45%
2019/11/8 0% 26.9% 43.7%
2019/11/7 0% 33.7% 45.7%
2019/11/1 0% 25.7% 42.7%
2019/10/27 0% 33.1% 42.1%
2019/10/25 0% 27.8% 40%
2019/10/24 0% 30% 42%
2019/10/18 0% 22.3% 40.5%
2019/10/14 0% 25.1% 41.5%
2019/10/4 0% 27.7% 41.1%
2019/9/28 0% 30.8% 41.2%
2019/9/21 0% 32.9% 44.4%
2019/9/19 0% 33% 45%
2019/9/10 0% 27.1% 43.4%
2019/9/9 0% 33.3% 45.1%
2019/9/5 0% 33% 44%
2019/9/2 0% 31% 43.7%
2019/8/26 0% 33.1% 39.9%
2019/8/25 0% 31.3% 40.8%
2019/8/19 0% 34.2% 42%
2019/8/12 0% 35.4% 38.2%
2019/8/8 0% 32.8% 37.8%
2019/8/5 0% 35.6% 37.5%
2019/7/30 0% 37.8% 35.4%
2019/7/29 0% 38.9% 39%
2019/7/24 0% 32% 32%
2019/7/23 0% 38.4% 37.9%
2019/7/18 0% 36% 41.2%
2019/7/16 0% 41.1% 30.2%
2019/7/9 0% 42.1% 34.5%
2019/7/2 0% 42.1% 33.9%
2019/7/1 0% 43% 38%
2019/6/25 0% 38.8% 40.6%
2019/6/18 0% 40.1% 40.6%
2019/5/27 0% 40.2% 34.1%
2019/5/26 0% 45.2% 35.9%
2019/5/19 0% 40.4% 38.6%
2019/5/15 0% 44% 38%
2019/5/13 0% 42.61% 35.1%
2019/5/11 0% 42.4% 37.4%

来源:聯合報系, ETtoday新聞雲, 蘋果日報。

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BBC整理的台灣大選候選人民意支持率結果顯示,從2019年6月蔡英文贏得民進黨提名後的兩個月,蔡英文與韓國瑜二人支持率十分膠著,但大部分時間為韓國瑜領先。8月1日起,蔡英文支持率變平穩上升,韓國瑜支持率開始持續下降,二人差距越來越大。

8月後也是中國對台動作的一個高峰期。8月1日,中國叫停大陸遊客赴台自由行;8月7日北京又暫停大陸影片與電影人赴台參評金馬獎,9月所羅門群島與基里巴斯兩個台灣邦交國棄台投中。專家認為,在這段時間內,蔡英文的一貫強硬立場是她得到更多支持的關鍵。

「我認為台灣人覺得蔡英文在維護國家主權與安全方面的紀錄比較一致,」葛來儀說。「人們看到她對中華人民共和國的威脅做出反抗,感到一定程度心安,而韓國瑜的一致性顯然很不明確。」

另一方面,韓國瑜的民意下滑還受其他因素影響。葛來儀指出,韓國瑜的政策欠扎實,尤其是蔡英文執政期間台灣經濟增長率表現不差的情況下,韓國瑜很難有其它亮眼的政策與她抗衡。

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  • 蔡英文雙十節演講首提香港傳遞出什麼信息
「選擇權在北京手中」 圖片版權 Getty Images Image caption 香港事態讓台灣民眾對「一國兩制」失去信心。圖為2014年10月1日,大量台灣民眾在台北自由廣場集會,聲援當年進行的雨傘運動。

台灣國立政治大學每年進行的台灣民眾身份認同調查結果顯示,截至2019年6月,台灣民眾中認為自己是台灣人的比重較去年上升2.4個百分點,達56.9%,而認同自己是中國人或者二者皆是的比例有所下降,其中中國人的身份認同比例只有3.6%。

在蔡英文執政四年間,大陸與台灣結束了馬英九時代的親密互動期。大陸在蔡英文上台伊始便因其拒絶「九二共識」切斷與台灣的溝通機制。之後幾年,「台獨」、「人權」等問題更是頻頻觸及兩岸關係雷區。

王業立向BBC中文指出,「反中情緒」已經成為這次選舉民調的一個決定性因素。

「雖然每次選舉兩岸問題都是重要議題,但這次的選舉由於香港示威使得兩岸關係更為重要,」王業立稱。「現在這個話題的重要性已經超越經濟、教育和蔡英文過去四年的改革成果,大家的焦點都著重在台灣尊嚴和『抗中保台』。」

他尤其指出,自從陳水扁政府力推教科書改革後,被稱作「天然獨」一代的台灣年輕人對於兩岸關係越來越敏感,2014年抵制北京經貿壓力的「太陽花學運」在台灣爆發後,台灣年輕世代的政治參與度有顯著提升。

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但葛來儀認為,這些民調結果並不代表台灣民眾希望與中國持續交惡。「絶大多數台灣人想要大陸做生意,有互動,」她說。「雖然主流民意越來越傾向於認同自己是台灣人,認同他們的國家是中華民國而不是中華人民共和國,但他們不想跟北京起衝突。」

「他們只是不想被迫接受中國的統一方案,」葛來儀表示,在台灣與北京的博弈中,主動權始終在中國手中。「最終,中國需要提供一套新的方案,一套可以吸引台灣民眾的方案。」

文中互動式民調數據統計由BBC東亞數據新聞組Aghnia Adzkia、Arvin Supriyadi、Davies Surya及Leben Asa整理製作。數據來自台灣聯合報蘋果日報ETToday新聞雲2019年5月至12月期間的民調結果,每兩次民調之間的數據由線性內插法計算得出。

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